Game Board week 9 monday

Game Board · week 9 · Monday 2026-11-02

Week 9 (Sunday 2026-11-08) · Monday run, 2026-11-02

Odds fetched: 2026-11-02 08:48:23 EST

Books used: every US book the fetch returned, offshore and Polymarket excluded (6: betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel, williamhill_us)

Lines: v1.4 (adopted line) · v2.3 (candidate, grey)

Paper rows this run: teaser leg (paper, Wong band) 1, totals check (paper, Monday) 3

Bars: expected value in cents per $1 at the best allowed price · one scale for every bar, ±50¢ (> beyond) · green right = positive, red left = negative · zero marker in each bar · [n] = rating 1-5

Game	Ours / book	Spread	Moneyline	Total
JAX at BAL QB? Fagnano 11-05 20:15	JAX 5.5 / JAX 8.5 42.1 / 43.5	BAL +8.5 -109 betrivers +13.0¢3	BAL +350 betmgm +45.3¢5 v2.3 +36.5¢	—
JAX at BAL QB? Jackson 11-05 20:15	JAX 1.0 / JAX 8.5 46.6 / 43.5	BAL +8.5 -109 betrivers +37.0¢5	BAL +350 betmgm > +107.6¢5 v2.3 +86.8¢	—
LA at WAS 11-08 13:00	LA 1.3 / LA 5.5 47.6 / 48.0	WAS +5.5 -106 fanduel +21.2¢4	WAS +210 fanduel +39.6¢5 v2.3 +15.8¢	—
LV at SF 11-08 16:05	SF 7.7 / SF 9.5 51.9 / 51.5	LV +9.5 -106 fanduel +7.9¢3	LV +410 fanduel +31.0¢5 v2.3 +38.2¢	—
NYG at PHI 11-08 13:00	PHI 1.4 / NYG 3.0 34.8 / 40.5	PHI +3 -108 fanduel +21.3¢4	PHI +136 fanduel +30.4¢5 v2.3 +18.8¢	under 40.5 -109 williamhill_us paper +26.8¢4
HOU at LAC 11-08 16:05	HOU 1.7 / HOU 5.0 41.7 / 41.5	LAC +5 -108 betmgm +15.4¢4	LAC +190 fanduel +27.5¢4 v2.3 +15.7¢	—
CIN at ATL 11-08 09:30	CIN 4.6 / CIN 3.0 45.8 / 51.2	CIN -3.5 -102 betmgm +5.5¢3	CIN -162 draftkings +3.6¢2 v2.3 +9.1¢	under 51 -105 betmgm paper +26.3¢4
DET at MIA 11-08 13:00	DET 8.0 / DET 7.0 45.5 / 50.0	DET -7 -105 fanduel +3.6¢2	DET -325 betmgm -1.8¢1 v2.3 -8.3¢	under 50 -108 betrivers paper +21.2¢4
BUF at MIN 11-09 20:15 Mon	BUF 1.0 / BUF 3.0 48.5 / 46.5	MIN +2.5 -102 draftkings +7.6¢3	MIN +131 williamhill_us +5.9¢3 v2.3 +11.3¢	—
CLE at NO 11-08 13:00	NO 1.1 / NO 3.0 45.7 / 43.0	CLE +2.5 -102 draftkings +7.5¢3	CLE +130 fanduel +5.3¢3 v2.3 -2.9¢	—
GB at NE 11-08 16:25	NE 3.3 / NE 3.0 49.0 / 47.5	NE -3 -102 draftkings +0.5¢2	NE -142 fanduel +2.2¢2 v2.3 +12.5¢	—
DEN at CAR 11-08 13:00	DEN 1.9 / DEN 3.0 43.1 / 43.5	CAR +2.5 -104 betrivers +1.8¢2	CAR +130 draftkings -0.1¢1 v2.3 -4.3¢	—
DAL at IND 11-08 13:00	DAL 1.6 / — 50.2 / —	—	—	—
NYJ at KC 11-08 13:00	KC 8.8 / — 47.9 / —	—	—	—
ARI at SEA 11-08 16:25	SEA 7.7 / SEA 11.5 40.9 / 44.5	—	—	—
TB at CHI 11-08 20:20	CHI 2.6 / CHI 5.5 44.4 / 47.0	—	—	—

Game

Ours / book

Spread

Moneyline

Total

JAX at BAL QB? Fagnano
11-05 20:15

JAX 5.5 / JAX 8.5
42.1 / 43.5

BAL +8.5 -109 betrivers

+13.0¢3

BAL +350 betmgm

+45.3¢5

v2.3 +36.5¢

—

JAX at BAL QB? Jackson
11-05 20:15

JAX 1.0 / JAX 8.5
46.6 / 43.5

BAL +8.5 -109 betrivers

+37.0¢5

BAL +350 betmgm

+107.6¢5

v2.3 +86.8¢

—

LA at WAS
11-08 13:00

LA 1.3 / LA 5.5
47.6 / 48.0

WAS +5.5 -106 fanduel

+21.2¢4

WAS +210 fanduel

+39.6¢5

v2.3 +15.8¢

—

LV at SF
11-08 16:05

SF 7.7 / SF 9.5
51.9 / 51.5

LV +9.5 -106 fanduel

+7.9¢3

LV +410 fanduel

+31.0¢5

v2.3 +38.2¢

—

NYG at PHI
11-08 13:00

PHI 1.4 / NYG 3.0
34.8 / 40.5

PHI +3 -108 fanduel

+21.3¢4

PHI +136 fanduel

+30.4¢5

v2.3 +18.8¢

under 40.5 -109 williamhill_us paper

+26.8¢4

HOU at LAC
11-08 16:05

HOU 1.7 / HOU 5.0
41.7 / 41.5

LAC +5 -108 betmgm

+15.4¢4

LAC +190 fanduel

+27.5¢4

v2.3 +15.7¢

—

CIN at ATL
11-08 09:30

CIN 4.6 / CIN 3.0
45.8 / 51.2

CIN -3.5 -102 betmgm

+5.5¢3

CIN -162 draftkings

+3.6¢2

v2.3 +9.1¢

under 51 -105 betmgm paper

+26.3¢4

DET at MIA
11-08 13:00

DET 8.0 / DET 7.0
45.5 / 50.0

DET -7 -105 fanduel

+3.6¢2

DET -325 betmgm

-1.8¢1

v2.3 -8.3¢

under 50 -108 betrivers paper

+21.2¢4

BUF at MIN
11-09 20:15 Mon

BUF 1.0 / BUF 3.0
48.5 / 46.5

MIN +2.5 -102 draftkings

+7.6¢3

MIN +131 williamhill_us

+5.9¢3

v2.3 +11.3¢

—

CLE at NO
11-08 13:00

NO 1.1 / NO 3.0
45.7 / 43.0

CLE +2.5 -102 draftkings

+7.5¢3

CLE +130 fanduel

+5.3¢3

v2.3 -2.9¢

—

GB at NE
11-08 16:25

NE 3.3 / NE 3.0
49.0 / 47.5

NE -3 -102 draftkings

+0.5¢2

NE -142 fanduel

+2.2¢2

v2.3 +12.5¢

—

DEN at CAR
11-08 13:00

DEN 1.9 / DEN 3.0
43.1 / 43.5

CAR +2.5 -104 betrivers

+1.8¢2

CAR +130 draftkings

-0.1¢1

v2.3 -4.3¢

—

DAL at IND
11-08 13:00

DAL 1.6 / —
50.2 / —

—

NYJ at KC
11-08 13:00

KC 8.8 / —
47.9 / —

—

ARI at SEA
11-08 16:25

SEA 7.7 / SEA 11.5
40.9 / 44.5

—

TB at CHI
11-08 20:20

CHI 2.6 / CHI 5.5
44.4 / 47.0

—

JAX at BAL: with Joe Fagnano; QB? BAL: Lamar Jackson took 1 of 31 dropbacks last game; no injury report for week 9 yet; paper rows deferred; starter BAL: Joe Fagnano (last game Lamar Jackson)

JAX at BAL: with Lamar Jackson; projection with the alternate starter (paper rows deferred)

NYG at PHI: paper: Monday totals

CIN at ATL: paper: Monday totals

DET at MIA: paper: Monday totals

DAL at IND: 0 books

NYJ at KC: 0 books

ARI at SEA: a team's previous game not played yet (Monday night)

TB at CHI: a team's previous game not played yet (Monday night)

Rating 1-5 from the EV at the best price: ≤0¢ → 1; 0-5¢ → 2; 5-15¢ → 3; 15-30¢ → 4; 30¢+ → 5. It is a coarse view of the EV, not a confidence grade: run 20 found that the size of our disagreement with the book does not grade the bet.
Spread EV: normal on our v1.4 spread minus the book's number, SD 13.28. Moneyline EV: our v1.4 win probability x price; v2.3 beside it. Total EV: normal on our v1.4 total minus the book's, SD 13.66; wind-under rows use the wind band's 2010-2022 under rate at the highest total. Spreads and totals count only when both sides are priced between -160 and +140. Nothing on the board is a bet.
Stated EVs assume our probability is right. On 2020-2022 the realized return of the paper rules ran at roughly half the stated EV (run 20: stated spread edge 13.6 points against about 7 realized), so read the bars as relative value, not expected profit.