JAX at BAL

2026 week 9 · 2026-11-05 20:15 ET · ledger run 2026-11-02 16:49:45 (monday) · back to the board

Prediction — projection A, with Joe Fagnano

QB? BAL: Lamar Jackson took 1 of 31 dropbacks last game; no injury report for week 9 yet. Starters this projection: Joe Fagnano (BAL), Trevor Lawrence (JAX).

18.3BAL projected (v1.4)

23.8JAX projected (v1.4)

JAX 5.5 / JAX 8.5our v1.4 spread / the book at the run

42.1 / 43.5our total / the book

shadow v2.3: JAX 5.4 / 42.2

Line v1.4

Group BAL pts JAX pts Spread Total Run. spread Run. total v2.3

Starting point 22.7 22.7 pick 45.5

Scoring level

-0.8

even

-1.7

pick

43.8

-0.6

Offense

-0.3

+1.7

JAX 2.1

+1.4

JAX 2.1

45.2

-0.3 / +1.5

Offense (own): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Own offense efficiency, this season (current part) `off_epa_play_blend:current part` EPA per play, opponent-adjusted, this season's part of the blend	-0.030	0.103	-0.007	+12.390 x weight 0.67 / 0.58	-0.19	+0.79
Own offense efficiency, last 8 games weighted `off_epa_play_exp8` unit: EPA per play	-0.030	0.163	-0.005	+3.256	-0.08	+0.55
Own success rate, last 4 weighted `off_success_rate_exp4` unit: share of plays	0.425	0.469	0.431	+10.104	-0.06	+0.39
Sum = the group row					-0.34	+1.73

Opp. defense

-1.0

+0.1

JAX 1.1

-0.9

JAX 3.2

44.4

-0.9 / +0.0

Defense faced (opponent's): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Opponent's defense efficiency, last 8 games weighted `opp_def_epa_play_exp8` unit: EPA allowed per play	-0.114	0.024	-0.005	+5.385	-0.59	+0.15
Opponent's defense efficiency, this season (current part) `opp_def_epa_play_blend:current part` EPA allowed per play, adjusted, this season's part	-0.057	0.006	-0.007	+16.766 x weight 0.58 / 0.67	-0.49	+0.13
Opponent's defense success rate allowed, last 4 `opp_def_success_rate_exp4` unit: share of plays	0.418	0.456	0.431	-6.495	+0.09	-0.17
Sum = the group row					-0.99	+0.12

Carryover

-0.5

+0.5

JAX 1.0

-0.1

JAX 4.2

44.3

-0.5 / +0.4

Prior-season carryover: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Opponent's defense, last season's part (prior-season part) `opp_def_epa_play_blend:prior-season part` the opponent's last-season EPA allowed, same fade	-0.110	0.033	-0.007	+16.766 x weight 0.42 / 0.33	-0.72	+0.22
Own offense efficiency, last season's part (prior-season part) `off_epa_play_blend:prior-season part` last season's EPA per play, weight 1 at game 0 fading to 0 by game 12	0.038	0.041	-0.007	+12.390 x weight 0.33 / 0.42	+0.18	+0.24
Sum = the group row					-0.54	+0.46

Quarterback

-2.8

+0.2

JAX 3.0

-2.6

JAX 7.2

41.7

Quarterback: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Backup quarterback starting `qb_backup` 1 when the starter is not the established starter and has fewer career dropbacks (Run 11 addendum)	1.000	0.000	0.148	-2.530	< -2.16	+0.37
Starting quarterback's career quality `qb_epa_career` unit: EPA per dropback, shrunk	0.002	0.060	0.073	+13.266	-0.95	-0.17
Rookie starting quarterback `qb_rookie` unit: 1 = yes	1.000	0.000	0.105	+0.310	+0.28	-0.03
Established starter returning `qb_return` 1 when the established starter is back after someone else started the previous game	0.000	0.000	0.037	-0.911	+0.03	+0.03
Sum = the group row					-2.79	+0.20

Home field

+1.0

-1.0

BAL 2.0

+0.0

JAX 5.1

41.7

+0.8 / -0.8

Home field: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Home field `is_home` unit: 1 = home	1.000	0.000	0.493	+2.034	+1.03	-1.00
Neutral site `is_neutral` unit: 1 = neutral	0.000	0.000	0.014	+0.288	+0.00	+0.00
Sum = the group row					+1.03	-1.01

Standings

+0.1

even

+0.3

JAX 5.1

42.0

+0.2 / +0.1

Standings: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Games back in the division `games_back` unit: games	2.000	0.000	1.832	-0.287	-0.05	+0.53
Division leader `div_leader` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	1.000	0.383	-0.560	+0.21	-0.35
Eliminated from playoffs (wins only) `pp_eliminated` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.065	+0.456	-0.03	-0.03
Clinched a playoff spot (wins only) `pp_clinched` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.032	+0.336	-0.01	-0.01
Sum = the group row					+0.13	+0.14

Special teams

+0.1

+0.2

JAX 0.1

+0.3

JAX 5.2

42.3

+0.2 / +0.3

Special teams (own): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Own average drive start, last 8 `off_start_field_pos_exp8` unit: yards from own goal	30.0	31.6	28.3	+0.095	+0.16	+0.31
Own special teams, last 8 games `off_st_epa_exp8` unit: EPA per game	-0.216	-0.629	-0.002	+0.189	-0.04	-0.12
Sum = the group row					+0.12	+0.19

Opp. special teams

+0.0

+0.3

JAX 0.3

+0.3

JAX 5.5

42.6

Special teams faced (opponent's): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Opponent's defense: drive start allowed, last 8 `opp_def_start_field_pos_exp8` unit: yards from own goal	27.9	31.2	28.3	+0.096	-0.04	+0.28
Opponent's special teams, last 8 games `opp_st_epa_exp8` unit: EPA per game	-0.629	-0.216	-0.002	-0.079	+0.05	+0.02
Sum = the group row					+0.01	+0.30

Injuries

-0.3

even

-0.7

JAX 5.5

41.9

-0.3 / -0.3

Injuries: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Opponent's defensive starters out (snap share) `opp_inj_out_snapshare_def` unit: starter-shares	0.000	0.000	0.412	+0.916	-0.38	-0.38
Own offensive starters out (snap share) `inj_out_snapshare_off` unit: starter-shares	0.000	0.000	0.429	-0.175	+0.08	+0.08
Injury snap data missing flag (pre-2013) `inj_out_snapshare_missing` unit: 1 = missing	0.000	0.000	0.185	+0.208	-0.04	-0.04
Sum = the group row					-0.34	-0.34

Weather

-0.2

even

-0.4

JAX 5.5

41.6

Weather: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Wind (0 indoors) `wind_mph_0indoor` unit: mph	7.235	7.235	6.007	-0.119	-0.15	-0.15
Indoor game `indoor` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.277	+0.373	-0.10	-0.10
Rain or snow recorded `precip` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.070	-0.990	+0.07	+0.07
Sum = the group row					-0.18	-0.18

Division

+0.3

even

+0.5

JAX 5.5

42.1

Division: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Division game `div_game` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.368	-0.712	+0.26	+0.26
Sum = the group row					+0.26	+0.26

Matchupsv2.3

-0.2

+0.1

JAX 0.3

-0.1

—

-0.2 / +0.1

Matchups: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Rush matchup `match_rush` unit: EPA	-0.161	0.128	-0.001	+1.367	-0.22	+0.18
Pass matchup (own pass offense + opp pass defense allowed, centered) `match_pass` unit: EPA	-0.063	0.260	0.000	-0.284	+0.02	-0.07
Sum = the group row					-0.20	+0.10

Pacev2.3

-0.7

-0.1

JAX 0.6

-0.9

—

-0.7 / -0.1

Pace: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Plays the opponent's defense allows `opp_def_plays_allowed_exp8` plays allowed per game, last 8 weighted	59.2	62.6	62.8	+0.138	-0.49	-0.03
Own seconds per play (neutral) `off_neutral_sec_per_play_exp8` seconds between plays when the score is close, last 8 weighted	32.2	31.5	30.6	-0.184	-0.28	-0.16
Own plays per game `off_plays_exp8` offensive plays per game, last 8 games weighted	59.1	58.7	62.8	-0.026	+0.10	+0.11
Own no-huddle rate `off_no_huddle_rate_exp8` share of plays run without a huddle, last 8 weighted	0.034	0.029	0.096	+0.660	-0.04	-0.04
Opponent's seconds per play faced `opp_def_neutral_sec_per_play_exp8` seconds per play the opponent's defense faces in neutral situations	31.4	30.2	30.6	-0.028	-0.02	+0.01
Sum = the group row					-0.74	-0.11

Team home fieldv2.3

+0.4

-0.4

BAL 0.8

+0.0

—

+0.4 / -0.4

Team home field (vs the league home field): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Team home field `team_home_field` the stadium's own past home edge over the league's, shrunk with k = 24 (home row +, away row -)	1.854	-1.854	0.000	+0.214	+0.40	-0.40
Sum = the group row					+0.40	-0.40

OL experiencev2.3

+0.0

even

+0.0

—

+0.0 / +0.0

Offensive-line experience: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Offensive-line experience `ol_mean_exp` mean years of experience of the five depth-chart line starters	4.400	4.200	4.355	+0.208	+0.01	-0.03
Line experience missing `ol_mean_exp_missing` flag: no depth-chart line data for the game	0.000	0.000	0.000	+11.584	+0.00	+0.00
Sum = the group row					+0.01	-0.03

Receivers YACv2.3

+0.3

+0.2

BAL 0.1

+0.5

—

+0.3 / +0.2

Receivers' YAC over expected: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Top-three receivers' YAC over expected `off_top3_yac_oe_exp8` yards after catch over expected of the top three targets, last 8 weighted	1.464	0.971	0.456	+0.245	+0.25	+0.13
Receiver data missing `off_top3_yac_oe_exp8_missing` flag: no tracking data (before 2016)	0.000	0.000	0.448	-0.151	+0.07	+0.07
Sum = the group row					+0.31	+0.19

Pressurev2.3

+0.0

even

+0.0

—

+0.0 / +0.0

Pressure (decomposed sack rate): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Pressure x sacks per pressure `sack_rate_decomposed` pressure allowed times the quarterback's career sacks per pressure	0.051	0.050	0.061	-8.197	+0.09	+0.09
Pressure data missing `sack_rate_decomposed_missing` flag: no pressure data (before 2018)	0.000	0.000	0.519	+0.134	-0.07	-0.07
Sum = the group row					+0.02	+0.02

Surfacev2.3

+0.0

even

+0.0

—

+0.0 / +0.0

Surface mismatch: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Surface mismatch `surface_mismatch` 1 on the visitor's row when its home surface differs from the venue's	-0.000	0.000	0.006	-0.309	+0.00	+0.00
Surface data missing `surface_mismatch_missing` flag: stadium surface unknown	0.000	0.000	0.016	+0.013	+0.00	+0.00
Sum = the group row					+0.00	+0.00

Prediction

18.3

23.8

JAX 5.5

42.1

JAX 5.4 / 42.2

In testing

Pace

-0.4

+0.1

JAX 0.5

-0.3

JAX 6.0

41.7

Team home field

+0.6

-0.4

BAL 1.0

+0.1

JAX 4.5

42.2

OL experience

+0.0

-0.1

BAL 0.1

-0.1

JAX 5.4

42.0

Receivers YAC

+0.2

+0.1

BAL 0.1

+0.2

JAX 5.4

42.3

Pressure

+0.1

even

+0.2

JAX 5.5

42.3

Surface

-0.2

+0.1

JAX 0.3

+0.0

JAX 5.8

42.0

Starting point: the league average, 22.75 points a team.
Scoring level: this season's mean miss so far, -0.83 a team, shrunk n/(n+64); adjusted starting point 21.92.
BAL pts / JAX pts: the points each row adds to that team. Spread: the row's effect on the margin, green toward BAL, red toward JAX (±1.2 scale). Total: its effect on the total, grey (±2 scale). Run. spread / Run. total: the line so far. Click a row for its stats.
v2.3: the shadow line's figures (BAL / JAX points) where they differ by 0.05 or more; grey rows marked v2.3 are groups only it has.
In testing: each term added to v1.4 alone; its running columns are v1.4 with that term.

Shadow v2.3: v2.3 reads BAL 0.1 points stronger than v1.4 (JAX 5.4 vs JAX 5.5): Team home field +0.8, Pace -0.6, Home field -0.4 (toward BAL); total 42.2 vs 42.1.

Not played yet: the result block appears once it is.

Paper rows at this run: teaser leg (paper, Wong band): JAX -2.5

Prediction — projection B (alternate starter)

QB? BAL: Lamar Jackson took 1 of 31 dropbacks last game; no injury report for week 9 yet. Starters this projection: Lamar Jackson (BAL), Trevor Lawrence (JAX).

22.8BAL projected (v1.4)

23.8JAX projected (v1.4)

JAX 1.0 / JAX 8.5our v1.4 spread / the book at the run

46.6 / 43.5our total / the book

shadow v2.3: JAX 0.9 / 46.7

Line v1.4

Group BAL pts JAX pts Spread Total Run. spread Run. total v2.3

Starting point 22.7 22.7 pick 45.5

Scoring level

-0.8

even

-1.7

pick

43.8

-0.6

Offense

-0.3

+1.7

JAX 2.1

+1.4

JAX 2.1

45.2

-0.3 / +1.5

Offense (own): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Own offense efficiency, this season (current part) `off_epa_play_blend:current part` EPA per play, opponent-adjusted, this season's part of the blend	-0.030	0.103	-0.007	+12.390 x weight 0.67 / 0.58	-0.19	+0.79
Own offense efficiency, last 8 games weighted `off_epa_play_exp8` unit: EPA per play	-0.030	0.163	-0.005	+3.256	-0.08	+0.55
Own success rate, last 4 weighted `off_success_rate_exp4` unit: share of plays	0.425	0.469	0.431	+10.104	-0.06	+0.39
Sum = the group row					-0.34	+1.73

Opp. defense

-1.0

+0.1

JAX 1.1

-0.9

JAX 3.2

44.4

-0.9 / +0.0

Defense faced (opponent's): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Opponent's defense efficiency, last 8 games weighted `opp_def_epa_play_exp8` unit: EPA allowed per play	-0.114	0.024	-0.005	+5.385	-0.59	+0.15
Opponent's defense efficiency, this season (current part) `opp_def_epa_play_blend:current part` EPA allowed per play, adjusted, this season's part	-0.057	0.006	-0.007	+16.766 x weight 0.58 / 0.67	-0.49	+0.13
Opponent's defense success rate allowed, last 4 `opp_def_success_rate_exp4` unit: share of plays	0.418	0.456	0.431	-6.495	+0.09	-0.17
Sum = the group row					-0.99	+0.12

Carryover

-0.5

+0.5

JAX 1.0

-0.1

JAX 4.2

44.3

-0.5 / +0.4

Prior-season carryover: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Opponent's defense, last season's part (prior-season part) `opp_def_epa_play_blend:prior-season part` the opponent's last-season EPA allowed, same fade	-0.110	0.033	-0.007	+16.766 x weight 0.42 / 0.33	-0.72	+0.22
Own offense efficiency, last season's part (prior-season part) `off_epa_play_blend:prior-season part` last season's EPA per play, weight 1 at game 0 fading to 0 by game 12	0.038	0.041	-0.007	+12.390 x weight 0.33 / 0.42	+0.18	+0.24
Sum = the group row					-0.54	+0.46

Quarterback

+1.7

+0.2

BAL 1.5

+1.9

JAX 2.6

46.2

Quarterback: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Starting quarterback's career quality `qb_epa_career` unit: EPA per dropback, shrunk	0.176	0.060	0.073	+13.266	> +1.37	-0.17
Backup quarterback starting `qb_backup` 1 when the starter is not the established starter and has fewer career dropbacks (Run 11 addendum)	0.000	0.000	0.148	-2.530	+0.37	+0.37
Established starter returning `qb_return` 1 when the established starter is back after someone else started the previous game	0.000	0.000	0.037	-0.911	+0.03	+0.03
Rookie starting quarterback `qb_rookie` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.105	+0.310	-0.03	-0.03
Sum = the group row					+1.74	+0.20

Home field

+1.0

-1.0

BAL 2.0

+0.0

JAX 0.6

46.2

+0.8 / -0.8

Home field: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Home field `is_home` unit: 1 = home	1.000	0.000	0.493	+2.034	+1.03	-1.00
Neutral site `is_neutral` unit: 1 = neutral	0.000	0.000	0.014	+0.288	+0.00	+0.00
Sum = the group row					+1.03	-1.01

Standings

+0.1

even

+0.3

JAX 0.6

46.5

+0.2 / +0.1

Standings: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Games back in the division `games_back` unit: games	2.000	0.000	1.832	-0.287	-0.05	+0.53
Division leader `div_leader` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	1.000	0.383	-0.560	+0.21	-0.35
Eliminated from playoffs (wins only) `pp_eliminated` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.065	+0.456	-0.03	-0.03
Clinched a playoff spot (wins only) `pp_clinched` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.032	+0.336	-0.01	-0.01
Sum = the group row					+0.13	+0.14

Special teams

+0.1

+0.2

JAX 0.1

+0.3

JAX 0.7

46.8

+0.2 / +0.3

Special teams (own): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Own average drive start, last 8 `off_start_field_pos_exp8` unit: yards from own goal	30.0	31.6	28.3	+0.095	+0.16	+0.31
Own special teams, last 8 games `off_st_epa_exp8` unit: EPA per game	-0.216	-0.629	-0.002	+0.189	-0.04	-0.12
Sum = the group row					+0.12	+0.19

Opp. special teams

+0.0

+0.3

JAX 0.3

+0.3

JAX 1.0

47.1

Special teams faced (opponent's): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Opponent's defense: drive start allowed, last 8 `opp_def_start_field_pos_exp8` unit: yards from own goal	27.9	31.2	28.3	+0.096	-0.04	+0.28
Opponent's special teams, last 8 games `opp_st_epa_exp8` unit: EPA per game	-0.629	-0.216	-0.002	-0.079	+0.05	+0.02
Sum = the group row					+0.01	+0.30

Injuries

-0.3

even

-0.7

JAX 1.0

46.4

-0.3 / -0.3

Injuries: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Opponent's defensive starters out (snap share) `opp_inj_out_snapshare_def` unit: starter-shares	0.000	0.000	0.412	+0.916	-0.38	-0.38
Own offensive starters out (snap share) `inj_out_snapshare_off` unit: starter-shares	0.000	0.000	0.429	-0.175	+0.08	+0.08
Injury snap data missing flag (pre-2013) `inj_out_snapshare_missing` unit: 1 = missing	0.000	0.000	0.185	+0.208	-0.04	-0.04
Sum = the group row					-0.34	-0.34

Weather

-0.2

even

-0.4

JAX 1.0

46.1

Weather: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Wind (0 indoors) `wind_mph_0indoor` unit: mph	7.235	7.235	6.007	-0.119	-0.15	-0.15
Indoor game `indoor` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.277	+0.373	-0.10	-0.10
Rain or snow recorded `precip` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.070	-0.990	+0.07	+0.07
Sum = the group row					-0.18	-0.18

Division

+0.3

even

+0.5

JAX 1.0

46.6

Division: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Division game `div_game` unit: 1 = yes	0.000	0.000	0.368	-0.712	+0.26	+0.26
Sum = the group row					+0.26	+0.26

Matchupsv2.3

-0.2

+0.1

JAX 0.3

-0.1

—

-0.2 / +0.1

Matchups: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Rush matchup `match_rush` unit: EPA	-0.161	0.128	-0.001	+1.367	-0.22	+0.18
Pass matchup (own pass offense + opp pass defense allowed, centered) `match_pass` unit: EPA	-0.063	0.260	0.000	-0.284	+0.02	-0.07
Sum = the group row					-0.20	+0.10

Pacev2.3

-0.7

-0.1

JAX 0.6

-0.9

—

-0.7 / -0.1

Pace: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Plays the opponent's defense allows `opp_def_plays_allowed_exp8` plays allowed per game, last 8 weighted	59.2	62.6	62.8	+0.138	-0.49	-0.03
Own seconds per play (neutral) `off_neutral_sec_per_play_exp8` seconds between plays when the score is close, last 8 weighted	32.2	31.5	30.6	-0.184	-0.28	-0.16
Own plays per game `off_plays_exp8` offensive plays per game, last 8 games weighted	59.1	58.7	62.8	-0.026	+0.10	+0.11
Own no-huddle rate `off_no_huddle_rate_exp8` share of plays run without a huddle, last 8 weighted	0.034	0.029	0.096	+0.660	-0.04	-0.04
Opponent's seconds per play faced `opp_def_neutral_sec_per_play_exp8` seconds per play the opponent's defense faces in neutral situations	31.4	30.2	30.6	-0.028	-0.02	+0.01
Sum = the group row					-0.74	-0.11

Team home fieldv2.3

+0.4

-0.4

BAL 0.8

+0.0

—

+0.4 / -0.4

Team home field (vs the league home field): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Team home field `team_home_field` the stadium's own past home edge over the league's, shrunk with k = 24 (home row +, away row -)	1.854	-1.854	0.000	+0.214	+0.40	-0.40
Sum = the group row					+0.40	-0.40

OL experiencev2.3

+0.0

even

+0.0

—

+0.0 / +0.0

Offensive-line experience: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Offensive-line experience `ol_mean_exp` mean years of experience of the five depth-chart line starters	4.400	4.200	4.355	+0.208	+0.01	-0.03
Line experience missing `ol_mean_exp_missing` flag: no depth-chart line data for the game	0.000	0.000	0.000	+11.584	+0.00	+0.00
Sum = the group row					+0.01	-0.03

Receivers YACv2.3

+0.3

+0.2

BAL 0.1

+0.5

—

+0.3 / +0.2

Receivers' YAC over expected: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Top-three receivers' YAC over expected `off_top3_yac_oe_exp8` yards after catch over expected of the top three targets, last 8 weighted	1.464	0.971	0.456	+0.245	+0.25	+0.13
Receiver data missing `off_top3_yac_oe_exp8_missing` flag: no tracking data (before 2016)	0.000	0.000	0.448	-0.151	+0.07	+0.07
Sum = the group row					+0.31	+0.19

Pressurev2.3

+0.0

JAX 0.1

+0.0

—

+0.0 / +0.0

Pressure (decomposed sack rate): each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Pressure data missing `sack_rate_decomposed_missing` flag: no pressure data (before 2018)	0.000	0.000	0.519	+0.134	-0.07	-0.07
Pressure x sacks per pressure `sack_rate_decomposed` pressure allowed times the quarterback's career sacks per pressure	0.058	0.050	0.061	-8.197	+0.03	+0.09
Sum = the group row					-0.04	+0.02

Surfacev2.3

+0.0

even

+0.0

—

+0.0 / +0.0

Surface mismatch: each stat, each team's value, the league average, the points per unit and the points it adds (the rows sum to the group row).

Stat	BAL value	JAX value	League avg	Pts per unit	BAL pts	JAX pts
Surface mismatch `surface_mismatch` 1 on the visitor's row when its home surface differs from the venue's	-0.000	0.000	0.006	-0.309	+0.00	+0.00
Surface data missing `surface_mismatch_missing` flag: stadium surface unknown	0.000	0.000	0.016	+0.013	+0.00	+0.00
Sum = the group row					+0.00	+0.00

Prediction

22.8

23.8

JAX 1.0

46.6

JAX 0.9 / 46.7

In testing

Pace

-0.4

+0.1

JAX 0.5

-0.4

JAX 1.5

46.2

Team home field

+0.4

-0.4

BAL 0.9

+0.0

JAX 0.1

46.6

OL experience

+0.0

-0.1

BAL 0.1

+0.0

JAX 0.8

46.6

Receivers YAC

+0.2

+0.1

BAL 0.1

+0.2

JAX 0.8

46.8

Pressure

+0.0

+0.1

JAX 0.1

+0.1

JAX 1.1

46.7

Surface

-0.2

+0.1

JAX 0.3

+0.0

JAX 1.3

46.6

Starting point: the league average, 22.75 points a team.
Scoring level: this season's mean miss so far, -0.83 a team, shrunk n/(n+64); adjusted starting point 21.92.
BAL pts / JAX pts: the points each row adds to that team. Spread: the row's effect on the margin, green toward BAL, red toward JAX (±1.2 scale). Total: its effect on the total, grey (±2 scale). Run. spread / Run. total: the line so far. Click a row for its stats.
v2.3: the shadow line's figures (BAL / JAX points) where they differ by 0.05 or more; grey rows marked v2.3 are groups only it has.
In testing: each term added to v1.4 alone; its running columns are v1.4 with that term.

Shadow v2.3: v2.3 reads BAL 0.1 points stronger than v1.4 (JAX 0.9 vs JAX 1.0): Team home field +0.8, Pace -0.6, Home field -0.4 (toward BAL); total 46.7 vs 46.6.

Not played yet: the result block appears once it is.

Paper rows at this run: teaser leg (paper, Wong band): JAX -2.5

Starter overrides that applied

BAL → 00-0040981: Lamar Jackson hurt one play into week 8 at BUF (Jeremy, Nov 2); Fagnano took 24 of 30 BAL dropbacks after; depth chart still lists Jackson (set by review session 2026-11-02 09:05)

From the prediction ledger ([project record] Data/Prediction Ledger/). Each cell is a factor group's contribution to that team's projected points (coefficient x the value minus the training mean); the net-to-home bars share one scale, ±1.2 points (> beyond), green adds and red takes; the grey bar is the row's effect on the total (both teams' points together) on its own ±2-point scale. The running spread and running total start from the starting point (pick, twice the starting points) and end at the predicted spread and total. One line per page: the adopted line (v1.4); the shadow v2.3 appears only as small grey figures where it differs, and its own groups as grey rows. "In testing" lists any experimental term being tried. Each row is the group's marginal contribution from one joint fit of all the groups, so correlated groups (the quarterback and the team's offense; the team's own offense and the opponent's defense) share information without any point being counted twice. Nothing here is a bet.