Game Board week 9 tuesday

Game Board · week 9 · Tuesday 2026-11-03

Week 9 (Sunday 2026-11-08) · Tuesday run, 2026-11-03

Odds fetched: 2026-11-03 09:03:09 EST

Books used: every US book the fetch returned, offshore and Polymarket excluded (5: betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel)

Lines: v1.4 (adopted line) · v2.3 (candidate, grey)

Paper rows this run: teaser leg (paper, Wong band) 1, line check (paper) 4, moneyline check (paper) 4, moneyline edge check (paper, v2.3 12+ underdog) 2

Bars: expected value in cents per $1 at the best allowed price · one scale for every bar, ±50¢ (> beyond) · green right = positive, red left = negative · zero marker in each bar · [n] = rating 1-5

Game	Ours / book	Spread	Moneyline
JAX at BAL QB? Fagnano 11-05 20:15	JAX 5.5 / JAX 9.5 42.1 / 42.5	BAL +9.5 -110 fanduel paper +18.1¢4	BAL +385 fanduel paper > +56.9¢5 v2.3 +48.7¢
JAX at BAL QB? Huntley 11-05 20:15	JAX 5.9 / JAX 9.5 41.7 / 42.5	BAL +9.5 -110 fanduel +15.7¢4	BAL +385 fanduel +48.6¢5 v2.3 +43.1¢
DAL at IND 11-08 13:00	DAL 1.6 / DAL 6.0 50.3 / 51.5	IND +6 -108 betmgm paper +21.2¢4	IND +225 betrivers paper +43.3¢5 v2.3 +45.2¢
TB at CHI 11-08 20:20	CHI 2.7 / CHI 6.0 44.5 / 46.5	TB +6.5 -112 betmgm paper +16.0¢4	TB +240 fanduel paper +40.8¢5 v2.3 +35.8¢
LA at WAS 11-08 13:00	LA 1.3 / LA 5.5 47.7 / 47.5	WAS +5.5 -102 draftkings paper +23.6¢4	WAS +210 fanduel paper +39.7¢5 v2.3 +15.8¢
NYG at PHI 11-08 13:00	PHI 1.4 / NYG 3.0 34.9 / 40.2	PHI +3 -102 fanduel paper +24.9¢4	PHI +152 fanduel paper +39.5¢5 v2.3 +26.9¢
LV at SF 11-08 16:05	SF 7.6 / SF 10.0 52.0 / 51.5	LV +9.5 -102 fanduel +10.2¢3	LV +440 fanduel +39.2¢5 v2.3 +46.3¢
ARI at SEA 11-08 16:25	SEA 9.3 / SEA 11.0 38.8 / 44.5	ARI +11.5 -115 draftkings +5.7¢3	ARI +525 betrivers +35.8¢5 v2.3 +63.3¢
HOU at LAC 11-08 16:05	HOU 1.8 / HOU 4.5 41.8 / 40.5	LAC +5 -110 betmgm +13.8¢3	LAC +188 fanduel +25.9¢4 v2.3 +14.2¢
BUF at MIN 11-09 20:15 Mon	BUF 1.0 / BUF 3.5 48.6 / 46.0	MIN +3 -105 betrivers +9.4¢3	MIN +155 betmgm +17.4¢4 v2.3 +23.9¢
NYJ at KC 11-08 13:00	KC 8.6 / KC 9.5 47.9 / 46.0	NYJ +10 -114 betrivers +1.5¢2	NYJ +390 fanduel +14.7¢3 v2.3 +4.9¢
CLE at NO 11-08 13:00	NO 1.1 / NO 2.5 45.8 / 43.5	CLE +2.5 -103 betrivers +7.0¢3	CLE +125 betmgm +3.1¢2 v2.3 -5.0¢
CIN at ATL 11-08 09:30	CIN 4.6 / CIN 3.0 45.9 / 52.2	CIN -3 -110 fanatics +4.4¢2	CIN -162 draftkings +3.4¢2 v2.3 +9.1¢
DET at MIA 11-08 13:00	DET 8.0 / DET 7.0 45.5 / 50.5	DET -7 -105 fanduel +3.8¢2	DET -325 betmgm -1.7¢1 v2.3 -8.3¢
DEN at CAR 11-08 13:00	DEN 1.7 / DEN 3.0 43.1 / 43.5	CAR +3 -114 fanduel +1.2¢2	CAR +130 betmgm +1.0¢2 v2.3 -2.8¢
GB at NE 11-08 16:25	NE 3.2 / NE 3.0 49.0 / 47.0	NE -3 -102 draftkings +0.1¢2	NE -150 betmgm -0.4¢1 v2.3 +9.5¢

Game

Ours / book

Spread

Moneyline

JAX at BAL QB? Fagnano
11-05 20:15

JAX 5.5 / JAX 9.5
42.1 / 42.5

BAL +9.5 -110 fanduel paper

+18.1¢4

BAL +385 fanduel paper

+56.9¢5

v2.3 +48.7¢

JAX at BAL QB? Huntley
11-05 20:15

JAX 5.9 / JAX 9.5
41.7 / 42.5

BAL +9.5 -110 fanduel

+15.7¢4

BAL +385 fanduel

+48.6¢5

v2.3 +43.1¢

DAL at IND
11-08 13:00

DAL 1.6 / DAL 6.0
50.3 / 51.5

IND +6 -108 betmgm paper

+21.2¢4

IND +225 betrivers paper

+43.3¢5

v2.3 +45.2¢

TB at CHI
11-08 20:20

CHI 2.7 / CHI 6.0
44.5 / 46.5

TB +6.5 -112 betmgm paper

+16.0¢4

TB +240 fanduel paper

+40.8¢5

v2.3 +35.8¢

LA at WAS
11-08 13:00

LA 1.3 / LA 5.5
47.7 / 47.5

WAS +5.5 -102 draftkings paper

+23.6¢4

WAS +210 fanduel paper

+39.7¢5

v2.3 +15.8¢

NYG at PHI
11-08 13:00

PHI 1.4 / NYG 3.0
34.9 / 40.2

PHI +3 -102 fanduel paper

+24.9¢4

PHI +152 fanduel paper

+39.5¢5

v2.3 +26.9¢

LV at SF
11-08 16:05

SF 7.6 / SF 10.0
52.0 / 51.5

LV +9.5 -102 fanduel

+10.2¢3

LV +440 fanduel

+39.2¢5

v2.3 +46.3¢

ARI at SEA
11-08 16:25

SEA 9.3 / SEA 11.0
38.8 / 44.5

ARI +11.5 -115 draftkings

+5.7¢3

ARI +525 betrivers

+35.8¢5

v2.3 +63.3¢

HOU at LAC
11-08 16:05

HOU 1.8 / HOU 4.5
41.8 / 40.5

LAC +5 -110 betmgm

+13.8¢3

LAC +188 fanduel

+25.9¢4

v2.3 +14.2¢

BUF at MIN
11-09 20:15 Mon

BUF 1.0 / BUF 3.5
48.6 / 46.0

MIN +3 -105 betrivers

+9.4¢3

MIN +155 betmgm

+17.4¢4

v2.3 +23.9¢

NYJ at KC
11-08 13:00

KC 8.6 / KC 9.5
47.9 / 46.0

NYJ +10 -114 betrivers

+1.5¢2

NYJ +390 fanduel

+14.7¢3

v2.3 +4.9¢

CLE at NO
11-08 13:00

NO 1.1 / NO 2.5
45.8 / 43.5

CLE +2.5 -103 betrivers

+7.0¢3

CLE +125 betmgm

+3.1¢2

v2.3 -5.0¢

CIN at ATL
11-08 09:30

CIN 4.6 / CIN 3.0
45.9 / 52.2

CIN -3 -110 fanatics

+4.4¢2

CIN -162 draftkings

+3.4¢2

v2.3 +9.1¢

DET at MIA
11-08 13:00

DET 8.0 / DET 7.0
45.5 / 50.5

DET -7 -105 fanduel

+3.8¢2

DET -325 betmgm

-1.7¢1

v2.3 -8.3¢

DEN at CAR
11-08 13:00

DEN 1.7 / DEN 3.0
43.1 / 43.5

CAR +3 -114 fanduel

+1.2¢2

CAR +130 betmgm

+1.0¢2

v2.3 -2.8¢

GB at NE
11-08 16:25

NE 3.2 / NE 3.0
49.0 / 47.0

NE -3 -102 draftkings

+0.1¢2

NE -150 betmgm

-0.4¢1

v2.3 +9.5¢

JAX at BAL: with Joe Fagnano; paper: line check (4+); paper: paired; QB? BAL: Tyler Huntley took 5 of 31 dropbacks last game; no injury report for week 9 yet; paper rows deferred; news: QB: Jackson out (thumb surgery, IR, 4+ games). Huntley toe, no practice Monday, status open. Fagnano (UDFA rookie, 25 dropbacks at BUF) limited Monday but expected to have a chance to play; Austin Reed signed to the practice squad as cover. Starter unannounced Tue 9 a.m.; our line assumes Fagnano. (baltimoreravens.com Nov 2 7:26 p.m. (Minter); ESPN Hensley Nov 1; heavy.com Nov 2 4:55 p.m.; review session 2026-11-03 09:05); starter BAL: Joe Fagnano (last game Lamar Jackson)

JAX at BAL: with Tyler Huntley; projection with the alternate starter (paper rows deferred)

DAL at IND: paper: line check (4+); paper: paired; paper: 12+ dog

TB at CHI: paper: line check; paper: paired

LA at WAS: paper: line check (4+); paper: paired

NYG at PHI: paper: line check (4+); paper: paired; paper: 12+ dog

ARI at SEA: ARI starter in doubt: Gardner Minshew took 21 of 50 dropbacks last game (2026_08_ARI_DAL); J.Brissett took 29; news: QB: Gardner Minshew named the starter at Seattle and going forward (Mike LaFleur, Monday Nov 2); Brissett benched after 10 of 23 vs DAL, drops to emergency QB3; rookie Carson Beck is QB2. Projection A (Minshew) is the right one; confirmed by override. (fieldlevelmedia.com; foxsports.com; thebiglead.com (Nov 2); review session 2026-11-03 09:12); starter ARI: Gardner Minshew (last game Jacoby Brissett)

CIN at ATL: news: Total gap -6.4 (ours 45.9, book 52.2). No quarterback or injury cause found: Burrow and Penix both starting; Falcons DE Ebukam and WR Branch out (hamstring); Bengals rookie Howell to IR (wrist), CB DJ Turner day-to-day. Neutral site in Madrid (Bernabeu, outdoors, 9:30 a.m. ET) is handled by the line as neutral; weather uses the Madrid month mean until 48 h out. The gap is a scoring disagreement, not news; Monday under row stands. (NBC Sports PFT Nov 2 (Stefanski); SI betting preview; hottakes.com; schedules.parquet location=Neutral; review session 2026-11-03 09:12)

Rating 1-5 from the EV at the best price: ≤0¢ → 1; 0-5¢ → 2; 5-15¢ → 3; 15-30¢ → 4; 30¢+ → 5. It is a coarse view of the EV, not a confidence grade: run 20 found that the size of our disagreement with the book does not grade the bet.
Spread EV: normal on our v1.4 spread minus the book's number, SD 13.28. Moneyline EV: our v1.4 win probability x price; v2.3 beside it. Total EV: normal on our v1.4 total minus the book's, SD 13.66; wind-under rows use the wind band's 2010-2022 under rate at the highest total. Spreads and totals count only when both sides are priced between -160 and +140. Nothing on the board is a bet.
Stated EVs assume our probability is right. On 2020-2022 the realized return of the paper rules ran at roughly half the stated EV (run 20: stated spread edge 13.6 points against about 7 realized), so read the bars as relative value, not expected profit.